Capital mobility and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Capital movements South Africa , Economic development South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Econometric models , Financial crises
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Capital movements South Africa , Economic development South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Econometric models , Financial crises
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
Liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets
- Authors: Magagula, Sifiso Charles
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Financial crises , Global Financial Crisis, 2000-2008 , Financial risk management
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9029 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020758
- Description: Purpose - The study sought to examine the liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets before the global financial crisis in 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The window of observation covered the period January 2000 to September 2008. In order to ensure robustness in the estimation, the study used foreign participation in the various markets as an additional measure of liquidity. The other liquidity measures considered in the study were volume and value traded of the various securities respectively. Time series modeling techniques were used in the estimation. An unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated following which the standard innovation accounting techniques, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions were applied. In the empirical analysis, the Granger-causality between the two markets was also used. Findings - While all the liquidity measures suggest the existence of linkages between the bond and equity markets, the direction of causality was found to be unidirectional from equity to the bond market using the volume and value measures. On the other hand, the foreign participation measure of liquidity suggests bi-directional causality. The study also provides evidence of long run relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on one hand and liquidity in the debt and equity markets on the other. As empirical findings indicates that the linkages in liquidity between these markets positive, this consistent with studies conducted by Chordia et al (2003 & 2005) and Engsted and Tanggaard (2000) who found the relationship was a positive one. When volumes of trade and trade values, the study find evidence on uni-directional causality and strong bi-directional causality is evidence when foreign investor participation is used as a liquidity measure. In summary, there is a strong evidence liquidity linkage between the bond and equity market from the empirical results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Magagula, Sifiso Charles
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Financial crises , Global Financial Crisis, 2000-2008 , Financial risk management
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9029 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020758
- Description: Purpose - The study sought to examine the liquidity linkages between the South African bond and equity markets before the global financial crisis in 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The window of observation covered the period January 2000 to September 2008. In order to ensure robustness in the estimation, the study used foreign participation in the various markets as an additional measure of liquidity. The other liquidity measures considered in the study were volume and value traded of the various securities respectively. Time series modeling techniques were used in the estimation. An unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated following which the standard innovation accounting techniques, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions were applied. In the empirical analysis, the Granger-causality between the two markets was also used. Findings - While all the liquidity measures suggest the existence of linkages between the bond and equity markets, the direction of causality was found to be unidirectional from equity to the bond market using the volume and value measures. On the other hand, the foreign participation measure of liquidity suggests bi-directional causality. The study also provides evidence of long run relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on one hand and liquidity in the debt and equity markets on the other. As empirical findings indicates that the linkages in liquidity between these markets positive, this consistent with studies conducted by Chordia et al (2003 & 2005) and Engsted and Tanggaard (2000) who found the relationship was a positive one. When volumes of trade and trade values, the study find evidence on uni-directional causality and strong bi-directional causality is evidence when foreign investor participation is used as a liquidity measure. In summary, there is a strong evidence liquidity linkage between the bond and equity market from the empirical results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
An analysis of the reporting on poverty and foreign aid in Sub-Saharan Africa before and during the current global economic crisis, in BBC online (Texts)
- Authors: Achu, Stella
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Economic assistance -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Financial crises , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:8371 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1257 , Economic assistance -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Financial crises , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions
- Description: Since 1929, the world economy has not encountered any financial crisis as severe as the case of the Great Depression, until 2007 when the fall of stock markets and the collapse of large financial institutions in the United States resulted in a worldwide recession. According to an IMF report, and as a result of the direct impact of the crisis, advanced economies such as those of the United States and Europe are suffering from a systemic banking crisis with economic output expected to contract by over 1 ¾ % in 2009. (Bourdin 2009:2) Although the crisis erupted in the United States, the effects quickly spread to countries worldwide. However, its effects are said to be more devastating for the poorest regions in the world including Sub-Saharan Africa. During the last few years, prior to the crisis, many Sub-Saharan African countries had enjoyed a growth rate of over 5%. This was partly as a result of sound economic policies and increased external support in the form of debt relief and higher inflows from economically powerful countries in the West. However, with the current financial crisis, wealthy nations have been forced to concentrate on sustaining their own economy. As a result, amongst changes like tighter immigration policies, skyrocketing oil prices and food prices, foreign aid is being withdrawn. (ibid 2009:3) According to foreign media reports, donor governments and the G8 are no longer as committed to aid as before the crisis. This research paper examines the evolution of aid to Africa in view of various contexts through a broad historical economic and political economy overview, and finally corroborates these observations with a discourse analysis of a sample of BBC online articles. The research project thus investigates in this last section, the BBC’s representation of poverty and aid in Sub-Saharan Africa before and during the current global economic crisis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Achu, Stella
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Economic assistance -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Financial crises , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:8371 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1257 , Economic assistance -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Financial crises , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions
- Description: Since 1929, the world economy has not encountered any financial crisis as severe as the case of the Great Depression, until 2007 when the fall of stock markets and the collapse of large financial institutions in the United States resulted in a worldwide recession. According to an IMF report, and as a result of the direct impact of the crisis, advanced economies such as those of the United States and Europe are suffering from a systemic banking crisis with economic output expected to contract by over 1 ¾ % in 2009. (Bourdin 2009:2) Although the crisis erupted in the United States, the effects quickly spread to countries worldwide. However, its effects are said to be more devastating for the poorest regions in the world including Sub-Saharan Africa. During the last few years, prior to the crisis, many Sub-Saharan African countries had enjoyed a growth rate of over 5%. This was partly as a result of sound economic policies and increased external support in the form of debt relief and higher inflows from economically powerful countries in the West. However, with the current financial crisis, wealthy nations have been forced to concentrate on sustaining their own economy. As a result, amongst changes like tighter immigration policies, skyrocketing oil prices and food prices, foreign aid is being withdrawn. (ibid 2009:3) According to foreign media reports, donor governments and the G8 are no longer as committed to aid as before the crisis. This research paper examines the evolution of aid to Africa in view of various contexts through a broad historical economic and political economy overview, and finally corroborates these observations with a discourse analysis of a sample of BBC online articles. The research project thus investigates in this last section, the BBC’s representation of poverty and aid in Sub-Saharan Africa before and during the current global economic crisis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
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