Export diversification, export specialization and economic growth in G20 countries
- Authors: Siswana, Sinesipho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: International economic relations , Macroeconomics , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52621 , vital:43693
- Description: This study sought out to empirically investigate whether it is export diversification or export concentration that would help achieve and sustain higher economic growth in the G20 countries using data over the period of 1995 to 2017. The empirical analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) to evaluate the existence of a long run cointegration and as a baseline for examining whether the relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth is nonlinear through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The ARDL model confirms that the is a long run cointegration between the variables where both export diversification and concentration have a positive impact on growth. On the other hand, the NARDL model confirms that the relationship between export diversification and growth in the G20 countries is a nonlinear where a positive change in diversification has a negative effect on growth, while negative changes have a positive effect, thus, diversification has a negative effect on growth. The NARDL results for concentration do not confirm any nonlinearities, this implies that both positive and negative changes in concentration have negative and statistically insignificant effects on growth. Both the panel ARDL and panel NARDL model are superior models that can account and correct any serial autocorrelation that may exist, thus making the results robust enough. Seemingly, that both export diversification and concentration have a negative effect on growth and this effect may be attributed to the sample being a mixture of developed and developing economies, the study further analysed the effect on to sub-samples (G7 and non-G7). The results for the G7 panel show that there is no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between growth and concentration, as a positive change has a positive effect and a negative change has a negative effect. Overall, the G7 NARDL results are show that concentration will accelerate growth in developed economies in the long run more than diversification. The results for the non-G7 panel the NARDL results show that there is a linear relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth. The overall, results of the study suggest, that for the G20 countries developmental levels need to be considered in order to know the correct export composition strategy to adopt in order to accelerate growth. With that said, in developed countries like the G7 export concentration would be beneficial in accelerating growth, while in developing countries like the non-G7 countries export diversification would accelerate growth. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences , Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Siswana, Sinesipho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: International economic relations , Macroeconomics , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52621 , vital:43693
- Description: This study sought out to empirically investigate whether it is export diversification or export concentration that would help achieve and sustain higher economic growth in the G20 countries using data over the period of 1995 to 2017. The empirical analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) to evaluate the existence of a long run cointegration and as a baseline for examining whether the relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth is nonlinear through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The ARDL model confirms that the is a long run cointegration between the variables where both export diversification and concentration have a positive impact on growth. On the other hand, the NARDL model confirms that the relationship between export diversification and growth in the G20 countries is a nonlinear where a positive change in diversification has a negative effect on growth, while negative changes have a positive effect, thus, diversification has a negative effect on growth. The NARDL results for concentration do not confirm any nonlinearities, this implies that both positive and negative changes in concentration have negative and statistically insignificant effects on growth. Both the panel ARDL and panel NARDL model are superior models that can account and correct any serial autocorrelation that may exist, thus making the results robust enough. Seemingly, that both export diversification and concentration have a negative effect on growth and this effect may be attributed to the sample being a mixture of developed and developing economies, the study further analysed the effect on to sub-samples (G7 and non-G7). The results for the G7 panel show that there is no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between growth and concentration, as a positive change has a positive effect and a negative change has a negative effect. Overall, the G7 NARDL results are show that concentration will accelerate growth in developed economies in the long run more than diversification. The results for the non-G7 panel the NARDL results show that there is a linear relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth. The overall, results of the study suggest, that for the G20 countries developmental levels need to be considered in order to know the correct export composition strategy to adopt in order to accelerate growth. With that said, in developed countries like the G7 export concentration would be beneficial in accelerating growth, while in developing countries like the non-G7 countries export diversification would accelerate growth. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences , Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Testing the applicability of the Twin deficits and the Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa
- Authors: Makua, Khutso Baltimore
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51831 , vital:43376
- Description: This study investigates the applicability of the twin deficit and Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa by exploring the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits for the period 1990-2020 in South Africa. The reviewed theoretical and empirical literature has shown the results of this relationship to be mixed, depending on the region in review and the policy regime in some instances. The Johansen cointegration test was used because it has advantage over the Engle-Granger over the number of cointegrating relationships they both test. Compared to Engle-Granger, Johansen cointegration allows for more than one cointegrating relationship. The test show evidence that there is cointegration between current account deficits, budget deficits and other explanatory variables. The tests indicated the presence of cointegration which led to the estimation of VECM. Co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques were applied to South African data between 1990 to 2020 period. The study at hand indicated that government budget deficits have a long run negative effect on current account deficits, but Granger causality failed to prove the direction of causality between the main variables, current account deficits and current account deficits. Therefore, the study concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is not applicable in South Africa and revealed that South Africa is a Ricardian economy as Granger causality could not establish that budget deficits cause current account deficits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Makua, Khutso Baltimore
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51831 , vital:43376
- Description: This study investigates the applicability of the twin deficit and Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa by exploring the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits for the period 1990-2020 in South Africa. The reviewed theoretical and empirical literature has shown the results of this relationship to be mixed, depending on the region in review and the policy regime in some instances. The Johansen cointegration test was used because it has advantage over the Engle-Granger over the number of cointegrating relationships they both test. Compared to Engle-Granger, Johansen cointegration allows for more than one cointegrating relationship. The test show evidence that there is cointegration between current account deficits, budget deficits and other explanatory variables. The tests indicated the presence of cointegration which led to the estimation of VECM. Co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques were applied to South African data between 1990 to 2020 period. The study at hand indicated that government budget deficits have a long run negative effect on current account deficits, but Granger causality failed to prove the direction of causality between the main variables, current account deficits and current account deficits. Therefore, the study concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is not applicable in South Africa and revealed that South Africa is a Ricardian economy as Granger causality could not establish that budget deficits cause current account deficits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
The effects of foreign direct investment on economic growth and human capital in vista countries
- Authors: Matitiba, Sandisiwe
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign , Economic development , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51989 , vital:43410
- Description: The study examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth and human capital in VISTA countries using time series and panel data analysis for the period 1990 to 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound approach was applied in this study to examine the long-term relationships. The findings posited that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth, FDI, trade openness, capital formation, primary school enrolment, inflation over the period 1990 to 2017. The investigation of the long run and short run estimates results between FDI and economic growth indicated that FDI exhibited a positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while in Vietnam, South Africa, Turkey, and Argentina a negative relationship was established. Moreover, the findings of the panel data analysis showed that VISTA countries have been actively promoting policies and strategies that attract FDI to enhance economic growth. The study further incorporated the human capital results which indicated that FDI has a positive long-run relationship on human capital except for South Africa and Turkey. In the long run the results suggest that FDI has a negative effect on human capital only in Vietnam and Indonesia. Whereas, in the short run the results suggest that FDI has a negative effect on human capital only in Vietnam. The findings of the panel regression model carried out demonstrated that FDI exerts a positive and significant effect on human capital. It is evident that VISTA countries have made efforts to reform over the years, however, the spill over benefits of FDI are different from one country to another. Based on the empirical results acquired, even though it is advised that policy makers should intensify policies aimed at attracting FDI, policy makers must also give attention to other growth-enhancing factors such as human capital. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Matitiba, Sandisiwe
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign , Economic development , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51989 , vital:43410
- Description: The study examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth and human capital in VISTA countries using time series and panel data analysis for the period 1990 to 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound approach was applied in this study to examine the long-term relationships. The findings posited that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth, FDI, trade openness, capital formation, primary school enrolment, inflation over the period 1990 to 2017. The investigation of the long run and short run estimates results between FDI and economic growth indicated that FDI exhibited a positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while in Vietnam, South Africa, Turkey, and Argentina a negative relationship was established. Moreover, the findings of the panel data analysis showed that VISTA countries have been actively promoting policies and strategies that attract FDI to enhance economic growth. The study further incorporated the human capital results which indicated that FDI has a positive long-run relationship on human capital except for South Africa and Turkey. In the long run the results suggest that FDI has a negative effect on human capital only in Vietnam and Indonesia. Whereas, in the short run the results suggest that FDI has a negative effect on human capital only in Vietnam. The findings of the panel regression model carried out demonstrated that FDI exerts a positive and significant effect on human capital. It is evident that VISTA countries have made efforts to reform over the years, however, the spill over benefits of FDI are different from one country to another. Based on the empirical results acquired, even though it is advised that policy makers should intensify policies aimed at attracting FDI, policy makers must also give attention to other growth-enhancing factors such as human capital. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Understanding the South African international investment position and the valuation effects: subtitle if needed. If no subtitle follow instructions in manual
- Authors: Hlati, Sisamnkelo
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51534 , vital:43298
- Description: This study examines the relationship between the South African Net International Investment Positions and the valuation effects over a period of 47 years from 1970 to 2017. To investigate the long run relationship between NIIP and the determinants thereof, this current study made use of the bounds test technique and the results indicate that a long run relationship exist. In which case, the autoregressive distributed lag model to empirically investigate the impact of the current account balance, capital account balance and the valuation effects on the South African NIIP was conducted and this current study finds out that there is a long run positive relationship between the current account balance and the South African NIIP. However, the study noted that the impact of the current account balance is volatile and this could be due to the net investment income payments (in a form of interest and dividend) made to foreign investors, which constitute a proportionately large share of the South African current account deficit. The capital account balance exhibits a positive long run impact on the South African NIIP in line with theory. The valuation effects on the other hand indicate a relatively stable impact on the South African NIIP, while in the long run have a positive impact on NIIP. The positive impact of the valuation effects could be due to gains being relatively larger than losses in the long run. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Hlati, Sisamnkelo
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51534 , vital:43298
- Description: This study examines the relationship between the South African Net International Investment Positions and the valuation effects over a period of 47 years from 1970 to 2017. To investigate the long run relationship between NIIP and the determinants thereof, this current study made use of the bounds test technique and the results indicate that a long run relationship exist. In which case, the autoregressive distributed lag model to empirically investigate the impact of the current account balance, capital account balance and the valuation effects on the South African NIIP was conducted and this current study finds out that there is a long run positive relationship between the current account balance and the South African NIIP. However, the study noted that the impact of the current account balance is volatile and this could be due to the net investment income payments (in a form of interest and dividend) made to foreign investors, which constitute a proportionately large share of the South African current account deficit. The capital account balance exhibits a positive long run impact on the South African NIIP in line with theory. The valuation effects on the other hand indicate a relatively stable impact on the South African NIIP, while in the long run have a positive impact on NIIP. The positive impact of the valuation effects could be due to gains being relatively larger than losses in the long run. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
The interaction between oil price shocks, currency volatility and stock market prices: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance
- Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Authors: Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9015 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018633
- Description: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) significantly contribute to the growth of the economy and the employment sector. However, it is indicated that SMEs lack access to the financial products and services that are critical to their growth. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. An online questionnaire survey was considered an appropriate measurement method for this study. The targeted population of the study included all small businesses operating in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole. Thus, some 208 companies were identified as part of the study sampling frame. A total number of 66 questionnaires were returned out of the 208 targeted companies - giving a response rate of 29 percent. The quantitative data were processed using a STATISTICA program, leading to appropriate descriptive statistical analyses, including frequencies, means, medians and standard deviations. In order to obtain a better understanding of the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance, hypotheses were also formulated and a t-test was used to establish the statistical significance of certain demographic variables and company characteristics regarding the problems experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. The results of the empirical study revealed that the major difficulties faced by small businesses in their access to finance were the lack of collateral and security, the high cost of borrowing interest and the delay in feedback from the financial institutions. Further, by testing the hypotheses, it was also revealed that the ethnic group of the applicant, the total years of business experience of the applicant and the annual turnover of the business have an impact on the access to finance. Based on the relevant literature study and the empirical results, recommendations were made in order to address the identified problems. However, the unavailability of an exhaustive small business database in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole did not allow the research to draw on a larger representative sample. Thus, this limitation has impeded in-depth statistical analysis that would have allowed the research to obtain more accurate findings. Further studies could investigate the reasons why in many cases financial institutions reject the funding of small businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9015 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018633
- Description: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) significantly contribute to the growth of the economy and the employment sector. However, it is indicated that SMEs lack access to the financial products and services that are critical to their growth. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. An online questionnaire survey was considered an appropriate measurement method for this study. The targeted population of the study included all small businesses operating in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole. Thus, some 208 companies were identified as part of the study sampling frame. A total number of 66 questionnaires were returned out of the 208 targeted companies - giving a response rate of 29 percent. The quantitative data were processed using a STATISTICA program, leading to appropriate descriptive statistical analyses, including frequencies, means, medians and standard deviations. In order to obtain a better understanding of the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance, hypotheses were also formulated and a t-test was used to establish the statistical significance of certain demographic variables and company characteristics regarding the problems experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. The results of the empirical study revealed that the major difficulties faced by small businesses in their access to finance were the lack of collateral and security, the high cost of borrowing interest and the delay in feedback from the financial institutions. Further, by testing the hypotheses, it was also revealed that the ethnic group of the applicant, the total years of business experience of the applicant and the annual turnover of the business have an impact on the access to finance. Based on the relevant literature study and the empirical results, recommendations were made in order to address the identified problems. However, the unavailability of an exhaustive small business database in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole did not allow the research to draw on a larger representative sample. Thus, this limitation has impeded in-depth statistical analysis that would have allowed the research to obtain more accurate findings. Further studies could investigate the reasons why in many cases financial institutions reject the funding of small businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Development economics : 'trustee for the poor' or 'guardian of rationality'? : inaugural lecture delivered at Rhodes University
- Authors: Black, Philip A
- Date: 1986-09-10
- Subjects: Economics , Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Text
- Identifier: vital:601 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020670 , ISBN 0868101559
- Description: Inaugural lecture delivered at Rhodes University , Rhodes University Libraries (Digitisation)
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1986-09-10
- Authors: Black, Philip A
- Date: 1986-09-10
- Subjects: Economics , Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Text
- Identifier: vital:601 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020670 , ISBN 0868101559
- Description: Inaugural lecture delivered at Rhodes University , Rhodes University Libraries (Digitisation)
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1986-09-10
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